United Kingdom's EU Referendum 2016

On the 23rd of June 2016 all UK citizens are invited to vote to either stay within or leave the European Union.

Are you in or out?

Most of us are looking for clarity, we need a source of unbiased information to help us make an informed decision on what is arguably one of the most important issues of our time.

This is where inorouteu.uk comes in!

Britain has been an EU member since 1973. The outcome of this referendum will affect us all. You will likely have seen a wide variety of predictions about life outside the EU. You will also be hearing many reasons for staying in. None of these can be 100% accurate, it is all speculation. No-one can say what life would have been like had we never joined the EU. No-one can be sure what life will be outside it in the future. And no-one can be certain of the ramifications of staying in.

The purpose of this website is to present, in simple form, the arguments put forward by both sides. This is not to persuade either way but to help you make an informed decision.

What effects for the UK could leaving the EU bring?

Leaving the EU would necessitate fundamental changes to the trade agreements we have with the rest of the international community. A trade deal would need to be made with the European Union. One of the biggest effects 'Brexit' could bring is a lack of ease when it comes to trading between Britain and other EU countries. A number of options currently exist between other European countries which could work for Britain. With any positive deal come negatives. Some could be less practical than staying in the EU.

Possible models Britain could take on

No model at all - This would mean a complete break from Europe. This means the UK would not have to abide by any of the EU rules and regulations. In this case the UK may be able to rely on its membership with the World Trade Organisation as a basis for trade. Otherwise it may cost the UK a substantial amount to trade with EU countries.

The Norwegian Model - This is referred to as the European Economic Area. The Norway option allows the UK to have access to the single market but will not allow any vote regarding EU rules. Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are members of the EEA. The EEA allows it's members access to the EU Internal market without custom fees except for food and drink, which are subsided by the EU. Members of the EEA however, do have to conform to EU's laws relating to the internal market. As a result, Norway for example, had to implement about three-quarters of EU legislation.

The Swiss Model - In this case, Britain does not have to be a member of the EU but instead negotiates with the EU on a sector-by-sector basis. Some deals have included getting selective access to the single market. But beacuse of these deals favourable to Switzerland, they have had to accept some EU deals. This includes accepting the EU's free movement of persons principle, which was not popular with the Swiss voters. It was one of the reasons, they rejected becoming a member of the EEA.

A Free Trade Agreement - Britain could seek a new free trade agreement with the EU. This would work in a similar way to the Swiss model but more work could be done in gaining better access to the financial services sector. In order to do this though, Britain would likely have to give up more power to the EU than the Swiss do.

The General Economy

The state of the British economy could be affected quite dramatically. In the event Britain leaves the EU we could see a boost to the economy or a drop. It is impossible to predict what could happen in the event of Brexit and its like jumping into the unknown.

Much depends on Britain's actions after the exit. Firstly, Britain will need to negotiate a satisfactory trade deal with the EU and the rest of the world, which is easier said than done. Secondly, Britain will need to focus on widespread deregulation from EU rules in order to boost the economy. Note that should Britain vote to leave, it may be years before it actually does. This is because it takes time to change or deregulate laws and powers set by the EU.

Multiple studies have been carried out regarding what could become of the British economy should it leave. As said before, no-one can know what will happen but according to Think Tank Open Europe, the best possible outcome would be an increase of 1.6% GDP a year by 2030. But they claimed a far more realistic range is between an increase of 0.6% permanent gain to a permanent loss of 0.8% GDP in 2030 "in scenarios where Britain mixes policy approach".

This study differs from that of The Centre for Economic Perfomance at LSE which states that a worse possiblity could be a reduction of between 6.3% and 9.5% GDP; similar to the size that was lost during the global financial crisis back in 2008-2009. They then stated that the best scenario would still be a loss of 2.2% GDP. Its important to mention that Think Tank Open Europe covered a wider range of factors than the Centre for Economic Performance.

Trade

Trade is an important issue in the EU debate.

Leave Campaign

An argument among the Leavers is that the EU is not as important as it once was. This means a Brexit would not be as catastrophic as the Stay campaigners claim
China, US, Japan etc all export goods to the EU with ease, why should the UK be any different?
If trade with the EU is not as easy as it is currently inside the EU, it can still establish bilateral trade agreements with fast-growing export markets meaning the effect to Britains trade won't be so damaging

Stay Campaign

There would be a major problem if Britain left the EU, stay campaigners say
The EU is worth £400 billion a year which is worth 52% of the total trade in goods and sevices
The car industry would also take a battering should Britain leave, with car exports getting a 15% tariff and a 10% tariff on imports

Jobs

At this stage it is impossible to understand fully the advantages and disadvantages on jobs if Britain votes out. Groups tend to have different views on whether jobs will be lost or gained.

Leave Campaign

Leavers suggest there could be more jobs available once we have freedom from EU regulations
This would mainly benefit small and medium sized businesses
They also claim that likely job losses (roughly 3 to 4 million) as a result of leaving the EU is debunked by the theory that "Jobs are associated with trade, not membership of a political union, and there is little evidence to suggest that trade would substantially fall between British businesses and European consumers in the event the UK was outside the EU," - The EU Jobs Myth, the free market Institute for Economic Affairs

Stay Campaign

A common view with the stay campaign is that, if we leave, European companies may want to scale back their operations in the UK. This is because large companies favour the UK having a strong membership with the EU
This is especially true with the car industry. A KPMG report recently stated that "The attractiveness of the UK as a place to invest and do automotive business is clearly underpinned by the UK's influential membership with the EU"
Another concern is that the UK leaving the EU could mean that manufacturers move to lower-cost EU countries
The financial services could also be affected as the financial services industry is, to a large extent, based on the EU Internal Market Legislation

Taxation

Leave Campaign

Tax is not greatly affected by EU membership
Only VAT would change. There is an EU agreed VAT band and this would be more flexible and controlled by the government if Britain was outside the EU

Stay Campaign

A concern is that tax avoidance will reach very high levels
As the economy becomes increasingly owned by foreign multinationals, it may become routine to avoid paying tax in Britain - according to an article in The Observer

Immigration

Leave Campaign

The leave campaigners claim that Britain will gain full control of the borders
They also want to introduce the same visa restrictions as apply to non-EU migrants
Leave campainers claim that introducing this measure would ease pressure on schools and hospitals as well as other public services
This may also mean more job opportunities for British workers and a possible boost to wages

Stay Campaign

Depending on the deal the UK makes with the EU regarding trade, the cost of a free market for Britain could mean free movement for EU migrants anyway
The Stay Campaigners claim that immigration from the rest of the EU is good for Britain's economy
The Office for Budget Responsibility says that the economy relies on migrant labour and migrant-paid taxes to keep funding public services
UK's growth forecast is partly based on high levels of net-migration

Emmigration and EU Nationals Residing in UK

Leave Campaign

If Britain leaves the EU, It will regain full control of its borders. British law will have complete control of migration
This means EU citizens may face the same restrictions which citizens outside the EU currently face
Those who already live in the UK will not be deported. They will be given an 'indefinite leave to remain', according to leave campaigners
They say this also means that British expats living within the EU will not be forced to return to Britain

Stay Campaign

Stay campaigners mention the advantage of being able to move freely, live and work throughtout any EU country without a visa or work permit
The most recent government statistics say there are around 2.2 million British citizens living in other countries in the European Union
If the UK decides to leave, it will be harder for Brits to move. They may have to apply for visas
There may also be conconsequences for those already abroad, saying they may have to take integration tests like proving they can speak the native language
It has also been warned that British expats may be considered illegal immigrants if Britain leaves both the EU and the European Convention of Human Rights without keeping free movement as part of a new trade agreement

Cost of Membership

Britain is one of the largest contributors to the EU with only France and Germany contributing more. This means that Britain pays more into the EU than it receives. It is one of ten member states which pays more than it receives.

The UK does get some money back. Some of this is in the form of an annual rebate as well as payments being made to farmers and for regional development grants.

Leave Campaign

The leavers say the UK would save billions in payments to the EU
It would also end the "hidden tarriff" paid by the tax payers when goods are exported to the EU
This is caused by a number of factors which include fraud and waste

Stay Campaign

The stay campaign say the price of membership in the EU is nothing in comparison to the benefits for businesses
this is due to the ease of access with the free market

UK's influence on the World Stage

Leave Campaign

Even if the UK leaves the EU, Britain will still remain part of NATO and The UN Security Council
Britain is also considered a powerful voice because of its nuclear power
Eurosceptics don't believe Britain needs the EU to remain the powerful voice it is currently

Stay Campaign

According to the stay campaign, Britain will likely be ignored by major countries such as the US and China should it leave Brussels
Allies of the UK such as the US want Britain to remain inside the EU
Should Britain leave, it will be less influential on the world stage when it comes to topics such as security and trade

Effects on Law

Leave Campaign

British government would regain all of its sovereignty
Would have control, over all laws
The country would not be affected by any European orders such as arrest warrants

Stay Campaign

Britain would lose EU employment laws and social protections
Losing the European Arrest Warrant could mean it takes more time for the extradition of suspects from other EU countries
The UK isn't affected by all European laws. Britain has some opt-outs, such as the EU labour law, already

The Environment

The environment is a part of British and EU law which are strongly connected. The effects of en EU exit would depend on whether the UK decided to lower, raise or maintain current environmental requirements in areas such as air and water quality, emissions, waste, chemical regulation or habitats protection.

Leave Campaign

The UK is actually stricter in some environmental based targets (such as drinking water) than the EU
Britain would have more control on changing objectives in the UK
A less far-reaching judicial process to enforce implementation of environmental policy and challenge its interpretation
The country would not be affected by any European orders such as arrest warrants

Stay Campaign

Much of the environmental and wildlife legislation is based on EU directives. This means is is unclear how the legislation would be replaced, should Britain leave
Any changes to the environmental legislation could have serious effects on members within the environment sector
The EU sets targets for all member countries to meet. It is uncluear how Britian would continue its environmental growth outside the EU
Pro-EU campaigners say that within a reformed EU, Britain can be a global leader in the fight against climate change
Billions of pounds could of investment in green jobs and growth could potentially be lossed if Britain left

Scientific Research

The EU plays a significant role in how scientific reasearch is conducted. According to the Guradian, Britain has 0.9% of the worlds entire population. Britain has 3.3% of the worlds scientific researchers who produce 6.9% of the worlds scientific output. And the EU is the world leader in terms of global share of scientific researchers with 22.2%.

Leave Campaign

There are some EU regulations which are not favoured by British scientists.
These include rules governing clinical trials, which supposedly affect innovation
The current EU research round is named the Horizon 2020. The UK may not have leave this behind as the government could accept an 'associate' membership from 2020 onwards

Stay Campaign

The UK is one of the largest recipients of funding in the EU
In the current EU research round, the UK has secured 15.4% of funds with only Germany securing more
Over 1,000 projects at 78 different universities in Britain are now dependent of funding from the European Research Council, according to new figures. This fundding would not be accessible should Britain leave the EU
Over 22% of all ERC-funded projects were British; more than any other country
British scientists are using international collaborators more and more.
In the early 1980s, Britains papers were only around 15% interantional. Today its more in the range of over 50% international
Scientists rely on free movement into the UK. Non-UK EU citizens account for 15% of academic staff at UK institutions. This is 20% at elite institutions

Media

The EU Referendum has been a huge part of the news over the past couple of months and will be for several more months to come, regardless of the result

*** To be updated shortly!***

Tweets by @InorOutEuUk

Reference Sources

Publications.Parliament.uk

BBC

The Guardian

In or Out? You decide.

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